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ERTMS (Market)

The ERTMS. system developed in Europe in the period 2000 – 2010, is proving to be a standard not only European, but international. This is because a standard guarantees: excellent product quality, assurance of maintainability and up grading over time, competition, cost stability and other positive aspects. ERTMS, being SIL 4, guarantees a global safety of the train running process, vulnerable only by the inexperience of the operators when they do not respect the operational procedures. With the evolution of IoT techniques more and more performance and affordable, ERTMS systems can provide 100% safety, being able to defend itself from the effects of human errors that cannot be eliminated. The Italian market, to date 2021, foresees the installation of ERTMS to modernize the 20,000 km of railway network by 2036. ERTMS has as applications light the PTC (in North America) and CBTC (for subways) systems. The world market for modernization and safety with RTMS-PTC is, to date, about 1,500,000 km of railway lines, 70 % of which are single-track and 30 % double-track. While the world market for subways, with CBTC, is about 15,000 km. In the near future, as rail transport is expected to increase, as it is less polluting and cheaper than the others, these figures could reach about 2,000,000 and 30,000 respectively. The detail of the railway lines market in the world is shown below. Europe: 400,000 km; North America: 450,000 km; South America: 100,000 km; India: 120,000 km; China: 100,000 km; Rest of Asia: 100,000 km; Africa: 100,000 km; Australia: 50,000 km. It is estimated that the train cabins (railways and subways) to be equipped are about 800,000, tending to 1,000,000. The costs of ERTMS-PTC systems, part of the trackside, are variable depending on national contexts and technological infrastructure present or not: about 600,000 to 1,000,000 Euro/km for railway lines, lower for metro lines; the costs for equipping onboard cabins about 500,000 to 700,000 Euro/cabin. These are the costs referred to existing products that have been developed with technologies and architectures of the decade 2000-2010, to date it is likely that there are more functional and at the same time cheaper technologies, architectures and communications networks, such as Cloud, IoT and 5G.  To date, 2021, the installed ERTMS-PTC-CBTC trackside and on-board, is about 5 % of the global market. The suppliers of ERTMS-PTC-CBTC, to date, are extremely limited, in less than 10, other fewindustries plan to be suppliers. From these numbers it is evident that the ERTMS-PTC-CBTC (SIL 4) ERTMS-PTC-CBTC signalling market enjoys the entrepreneurially interesting feature that seesthe demand hardly satisfied in a short time by a low supply.

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